Allianz Trade 2026 Country Risk Atlas: Turkey's Rating Upgraded Amid Global Uncertainty

Global Risk Atlas and Rating Changes Allianz Trade has released its "2026 Country Risk Atlas" report, analyzing 83 countries representing approximately 94 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP).
The study, which combines economic, political, and business environment data with sustainability indicators, saw risk ratings upgraded for 36 countries and downgraded for 14 countries for 2025.
The report states that the global economy is experiencing one of its most turbulent periods in the last 10 years, driven by structural shocks such as artificial intelligence, demographic shifts, the climate crisis, and trade regulations.
Growth and Risk Balance in the Turkish Economy Turkey stood out among the 36 economies with improved risk ratings.
The report forecasts that the Turkish economy will grow by 3.7 percent in the 2026-2027 period, supported by strong domestic consumption and the wealth effect associated with gold.
However, despite this positive outlook, the report notes that high inflation risks and rising borrowing costs continue to pressure the profit margins of exporting companies.
Along with Turkey, countries such as Argentina, Ecuador, Hungary, Italy, Spain, and Vietnam were also included in the list of upgraded nations.
Notable Downgrades in Advanced Economies The number of countries with downgraded ratings increased to 14 compared to the previous year, highlighting vulnerabilities in the global economy.
This group includes major economies such as France, Belgium, and the United States.
Allianz Trade CEO Aylin Somersan Coqui pointed out that these downgraded economies represent approximately one-third of global GDP.
She emphasized that the total economic size of these nations is ten times larger than that of the countries showing improvement.
A Pragmatic Guide for Strategic Decisions Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, stated that most of the rating increases in 2025 stemmed from strong macroeconomic fundamentals and supportive fiscal and monetary policies.
Luca Moneta, Senior Economist for Emerging Markets, noted that the rating system serves as a critical guide for decision-makers in the current world order characterized by multiple crises.
Moneta added that companies can use this data to manage economic volatility and secure their cash flows.