BETAM Inflation Expectations and the Trump Effect on the Global Economy: Critical Market Developments

BETAM Announces Household Inflation Expectations The Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (BETAM) has released its latest report on household inflation expectations.
Analyzing consumers' price increase projections for the coming period, the report provides a critical data set for shaping market expectations.
Rising Cost of U.S.
Customs Duties for Turkey U.S.
President Donald Trump’s customs duty policies continue to impact Turkey’s trade balance with the United States.
The effective tax rate faced by Turkish exporters has exceeded 17 percent, reaching approximately double the global average.
As of the last quarter of 2025, a decline was observed in Turkey’s exports to the U.S., while an increase was recorded on the import side.
Stagnation in the Credit Market Persists Despite the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey setting the policy rate at 35.5 percent, the expected revival in the credit market has not yet materialized.
The volume of vehicle loans in the banking sector decreased by approximately 1.2 billion TL in the last four weeks, and the impact of interest rate cuts on credit appetite remained limited.
The cautious approach in the sector is expected to continue into the first months of the new year.
Gold and Cryptocurrency Movements in the Markets In global markets, Bitcoin lost more than 2.5 percent in value, while gold prices rose due to the impact of legal uncertainties in the U.S.
Increased uncertainty following the U.S.
Supreme Court’s decision regarding Donald Trump led investors toward safe havens.
Analysts point out that gold is entering a period where it is priced based on geopolitical and legal developments rather than fundamental economic indicators.
Banking Sector and Global Finance Outlook Goldman Sachs presented a positive projection by upwardly revising its target prices for Turkish private banks.
On the other hand, the global private equity sector faced a dividend crisis, showing its weakest performance in profit distribution to investors in the last four years.
While experts point to levels of $140,000 for Bitcoin, volatility in the markets is expected to continue.