Bitcoin’s 2026 Ramadan Performance: Historical Rally Expectations Fall Short

Deviation from the Historical Cycle The "Ramadan rally" scenario, frequently discussed in the Bitcoin market, appears to have lost its influence in 2026.
While the cryptocurrency market primarily depends on global liquidity and macroeconomic developments, data from 2019 to 2025 pointed to a notable cycle.
In six of the last seven years, Bitcoin exhibited a similar volatility pattern during Ramadan: a rapid surge at the beginning of the month, followed by volatile trading and a subsequent pullback.
The only exception to this cycle was 2020, which saw a strong macro recovery.
Diverging Market Dynamics in 2026 Ramadan 2026 is following a different path than the usual rally starts of previous years.
Although a recovery attempt is currently observed, the overall market outlook remains significantly weaker compared to previous years' performances.
On-Chain Data and Lack of Demand On-chain data provides important signals regarding Bitcoin's weak performance in the first quarter of 2026.
While the Binance Purchasing Power Index falling to suppressed levels raises the possibility of a relief rally if selling pressure eases, the fact that network activity has remained low for the last six months poses a structural risk.
Despite the slowing selling pressure, many new investors are leaving the market at a loss, causing any upward movements to remain fragile.
Consequently, low participation and weak demand continue to restrict recovery efforts during the 2026 Ramadan period.