Gold Prices Hit Historic Record Streak: 5 Critical Risks Threatening the Rally

However, amidst ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, strategists warn that the surge has reached a critical threshold and that risks capable of halting the rally are intensifying.
Weakening Economic Data and Inflation Pressure Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, states that the necessary conditions for a significant sell-off in financial markets have begun to form.
While real GDP growth in the U.S.
remains below potential at around 2 percent, the stagnation in employment growth and the gradual rise in the unemployment rate are drawing attention.
The fact that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—a metric closely monitored by the Federal Reserve—remains at 3 percent is considered a factor that could exert pressure on assets like gold and silver.
Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Uncertainties Renewed uncertainties regarding customs tariffs and the potential for conflict with Iran are limiting the upward potential of risky assets.
While geopolitical tensions provide safe-haven support for gold in the short term, analysts suggest that sudden diplomatic or military developments could trigger sharp price corrections in the market.
Bond Market and Budget Deficits Uncertainties in the U.S.
Treasury market emerge as another significant risk factor.
Large budget deficits and weakening globalization are causing the safe-haven status of U.S.
bonds to be questioned, which can pave the way for sudden spikes in interest rates.
Experts also point out that the entry of leveraged hedge funds into the market has increased vulnerability within the bond sector.
Supply Shortages in China and Technical Levels A gold supply shortage in China following the Lunar New Year is seen as a local factor accelerating the price increase.
Reports indicate that some gold retailers have halted bullion sales due to severe supply constraints.
On the technical analysis side, analysts point to the $5,160 level as a major resistance point while highlighting a price gap at the $5,100 level.
It is predicted that an opening below this level could strengthen sellers and limit the market's appetite for buying.