JPMorgan Outlines Critical Tariff Scenarios for S&P 500

Supreme Court Decision Awaited The US Supreme Court is expected to announce its decision this week regarding the legal validity of broad tariffs implemented during the Donald Trump administration.
With the court projected to issue its opinion on February 20, 24, or 25, the prevailing uncertainty has led to a cautious wait-and-see approach in global markets.
JPMorgan’s Scenario Analysis JPMorgan’s trading desk has published a probability analysis of potential movements in the S&P 500 index following the court's ruling.
The institution emphasized that these figures represent a distribution of possibilities rather than a definitive forecast: 9% Probability: In a scenario where tariffs are canceled following the midterm elections, the S&P 500 is projected to rise between 1.25% and 1.50%, with the Russell 2000 index expected to show even stronger performance.
1% Probability: If tariffs are canceled and no new regulations are introduced in their place, the index could gain between 1.5% and 2.0%.
Economic and Legal Implications The United States collected approximately $124 billion in customs duties as of January for the 2026 fiscal year, making the decision's impact on the budget critical.
If the court restricts powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), analysts evaluate that the administration may turn to alternative legal tools such as Section 232 or Section 301.
This suggests that tariff pressure could persist regardless of the legal outcome.
Following the announcement of the decision, volatility is expected to increase across equities, bond yields, and the dollar index, as market participants focus on finding a new equilibrium after the initial price movements.