Mizuho Maintains "Outperform" Rating for Gemini Space Station, Suggests Losses May Be Priced In

Analysts Maintain 'Outperform' Rating Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins are maintaining their optimistic outlook for Gemini Space Station (GEMI) shares.
Despite the stock price plummeting 43% over the last 30 days to approximately $5.90, the brokerage announced it is keeping its $26 price target and "outperform" rating.
Management Changes and Market Reaction The departure of top executives, including the Chief Operating Officer (COO), Chief Financial Officer (CFO), and Chief Legal Officer (CLO), has caused significant concern in the market.
However, Mizuho predicts that the impact of this uncertainty and the resulting selling pressure on the stock price may have run its course.
The analysis report suggests that current negatives are largely reflected in the pricing.
Revenue Expectations and Operational Efficiency Preliminary revenue estimates released by Gemini Space Station ranged between $165 million and $175 million, exceeding Mizuho's expectation of $168 million.
However, the projected adjusted EBITDA loss of $257 million to $267 million presented a weaker picture than the firm's previous estimate of a $224 million loss.
The company continues to take radical steps as part of its strategy to transition to profitability.
A workforce reduction of approximately 25% and the decision to withdraw from the UK, European Union, and Australian markets are expected to strengthen the financial structure in the long term.
Valuation and Future Scenarios Mizuho continues to value GEMI shares at 7 times its 2027 estimated revenue.
This ratio remains below the sector average of 10, supporting the $26 target price.
In future scenarios, the firm predicts the stock could rise to $43 if user growth and margin recovery accelerate, while a floor of $8 could be established under the most adverse conditions.