Allianz Trade 2026 Country Risk Atlas: Turkey's Rating Upgraded Amid Global Economic Turbulence

Global Risk Outlook Shows Improvement Allianz Trade has released its "2026 Country Risk Atlas" report, covering 83 countries that represent approximately 94 percent of the global economy.
The report indicates a general improvement in global country risks throughout 2025.
During the year, the risk ratings of 36 countries were upgraded, while only 14 countries saw a downgrade.
However, the presence of major economies such as the United States, France, and Belgium among those downgraded suggests that medium-term risks for businesses persist.
Turkey's Economic Outlook and Growth Forecasts Turkey stood out as one of the countries with an improved risk rating.
The report predicts that the Turkish economy will grow by approximately 3.7 percent during the 2026-2027 period, supported by strong domestic consumption and the wealth effect linked to gold holdings.
Nevertheless, the report emphasizes that inflation risks and high borrowing costs continue to put pressure on the profit margins of exporting firms.
The Most Turbulent Period in a Decade Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, stated that the global economy is experiencing one of its most turbulent periods in the last 10 years, driven by a combination of factors including artificial intelligence, demographic shifts, climate change, and trade regulations.
Coqui noted that while resilience has increased, risk clusters remain in significant economies.
Regional Developments and Policy Impacts Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research, explained that the rating upgrades in 2025 were rooted in supportive fiscal and monetary policies along with strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals.
Improved financing conditions and the appreciation of local currencies reduced risks in emerging markets.
In countries such as Germany, Italy, Spain, South Korea, and Vietnam, falling inflation and improved trade performance bolstered economic resilience.
The model, which blends 17 short-term and 18 medium-term indicators, serves as a strategic guide for decision-makers in a world facing multiple crises.