Reasons for 6.9 Point Deviation in Central Bank's 2025 Inflation Target Revealed

Sources of the Inflation Target Deviation Despite the tight policies implemented by the economic management and the Central Bank to reduce inflation, the year-end inflation figures for 2025 exceeded the targeted levels.
According to evaluations in the Central Bank's first Inflation Report of the year, annual inflation reached 30.9%, representing a 6.9-point deviation from the interim target of 24%.
Food Prices and Agricultural Impacts The report highlights four main factors contributing to this deviation.
Food prices, one of the most significant items, recorded an increase of 28.3% compared to the initial assumption of 26.5%.
Specifically, an agricultural frost event in 2025 was the primary factor driving food prices upward.
Import Costs and Energy Prices Cost and demand-side effects also played a critical role in exceeding the target.
While the expectation for the change in import prices was -1.1%, the actual figure was 1.4%, adding an additional 2.1-point burden to inflation.
Oil prices rose to $69 per barrel, exceeding the estimate of $65.8, which accelerated the spread of inflation through fuel prices.
Components of the Deviation and Expectations According to the Central Bank's calculations, the components of the 6.9-point deviation are categorized as follows: TL-denominated import prices: 2.1 points Food prices: 0.9 points Administered and directed prices: 1.1 points Main inflation trend and inertia: 1.9 points Output gap: 0.9 points The mismatch between market expectations and the Central Bank's targets was a notable element from the beginning of the process.
Many economists and survey results had predicted that the 24% target was not achievable.
The inconsistency between targets and actual outcomes continues to put pressure on household inflation expectations.