Fitch Ratings Sets Turkey's 2026 Outlook to "Neutral": Election and Inflation Risks Persist

Fitch Ratings Sets Neutral Outlook for 2026 International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has set a "neutral" outlook for Turkey's financial and public sectors for 2026.
The agency's analysis highlighted that despite macroeconomic stability measures, the upcoming election cycle could increase economic risks.
The potential impact of the political calendar on economic policies was identified as a primary source of uncertainty for the period ahead.
However, the fact that dollarization remains at high levels continues to be a risk factor.
With the expiration of regulatory flexibilities on January 1, 2026, a decrease of 170 to 200 basis points in banks' capital adequacy ratios is projected; however, the agency anticipates that banks will maintain sufficient capital buffers.
Financial Services and Insurance Expectations The financial leasing sector is expected to be supported by falling inflation, declining interest rates, and access to foreign currency funding.
In the factoring segment, increased competition with banks is predicted to slow growth rates in 2026.
While strong premium growth and stable profitability are expected to continue in the insurance sector, combined loss ratios in traffic insurance are estimated to remain above 130 percent during the 2025-2026 period.
Growth and Inflation Pressure The report stated that Turkey's 3.5 percent growth rate supports public revenues.
Nevertheless, it emphasized that high inflation continues to exert pressure on public spending and budget deficits, a situation being closely monitored in terms of macroeconomic balances.