Russia's Fourth Year of War: Economic Slowdown, Nationalization, and Demographic Crisis

Security Measures and the Aviation Technical Crisis As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fourth year, air defense systems designed to counter drones have become a part of daily life in major cities, particularly Moscow.
The impact of the war is also being felt deeply in the aviation sector.
Due to sanctions imposed by Western countries, a bottleneck in the supply of spare parts for Airbus and Boeing aircraft has escalated technical failures.
In 2024, the number of recorded aircraft malfunctions reached 800, tripling the figures from the previous year.
Economic Structure and the Wave of Nationalization While Russia's economic growth rate is expected to decline to 0.6 percent in 2025, the unemployment rate remains at historic lows of 2 percent.
The primary engines of current economic growth are military spending, infrastructure investments, and social subsidies.
In the 2025 budget, personnel costs for the military exceed 4 trillion rubles, with approximately 40 percent of this amount notably allocated to payments for the families of deceased soldiers.
Since the start of the war, more than 500 companies have been nationalized.
One of the most concrete examples of this process is Domodedovo Airport, which was transferred to a structure linked to state-controlled Sheremetyevo for a price under $1 billion.
Demographic Crisis and Labor Policies The country's fertility rate fell to 1.3 in 2023, reaching its lowest level since 2006.
To combat population loss, the Duma has implemented regulations banning the promotion of a child-free lifestyle, while abortion restrictions have been introduced at the local level.
To fill the labor shortage, work permits were granted to 240,000 foreigners in 2024, with recruitment accelerating from countries such as Cuba, India, North Korea, and Sri Lanka.
Public health data reveals the psychological cost of the war; between 2020 and 2024, there was a 21 percent increase in diagnoses of anxiety and depression.
Legal Regulations and Social Impacts The war's reflection on the legal system has become evident through exemptions for prisoners and suspects who sign military contracts.
In this context, 1,112 criminal cases were suspended or completely dropped.
However, the social costs of this situation are being debated.
Over the last four years, it has been reported that approximately 1,000 people have been killed or injured in incidents involving individuals returning from the war.