TEPAV Director Cunedioğlu: Cigarette Pack Should Be 161 TL Relative to National Income

Turkey's Position in Global Tobacco Trade Can Selçuki, an economist at the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), has highlighted structural changes in the global tobacco trade.
Between 2005 and 2024, countries such as China, the United Arab Emirates, and Poland increased their market shares, while Turkey's share in global exports fell to 1.45%.
Selçuki emphasized that new-generation products now account for approximately 20% of world tobacco exports.
He noted that if Turkey had entered this sector in a timely manner, its export revenue could have been $250 million to $700 million higher than current levels.
Significant Tax Loss in E-Cigarettes H.
Ekrem Cunedioğlu, Director of the Development Program at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), stated that despite being banned, there are approximately 1.9 million users of e-cigarettes and similar products in Turkey.
This situation has led to significant informality in the market.
Cunedioğlu estimated that the tax loss resulting from this unregulated market will reach 76 billion TL in 2024 and is projected to hit 100 billion TL in 2025.
The Relationship Between Pricing and National Income Arguing that cigarette prices have declined relative to national income in the current inflationary environment, Cunedioğlu said that tobacco products have become a cheap consumption item in Turkey compared to the rest of the world.
He noted that because prices are indexed to the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the economy has grown, cigarettes have become relatively more affordable over time.
Cunedioğlu provided a striking calculation regarding the current pricing structure: "If the ratio to national income were 3.4 percent, as it was in 2010, a single cigarette would cost 8.2 TL today instead of 3.3 TL.
This would mean a pack would correspond to 161 TL." Cunedioğlu questioned the effectiveness of current pricing policies in the fight against tobacco, pointing out that economic data suggests the current pricing trends are actually encouraging consumption rather than deterring it.