Illicit Trade Threat in Tobacco Sector: Tax Loss Could Reach 100 Billion Lira in 2025

Tobacco Market Shifts Discussed in Ankara Current developments in the Turkish and global tobacco markets were examined at a conference organized by the Omni Science platform in Ankara.
The event featured presentations from research organizations, discussing sector changes through the lenses of economy, health, and legal regulations.
Next-Generation Products Gaining Global Market Share Can Selçuki, an economist from the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), noted that next-generation products now account for 20% of global tobacco exports.
Selçuki pointed out that while the traditional tobacco segment is not growing, employment in the sector is shifting from Asia to Europe, particularly to Poland and Italy.
Describing Turkey as a "productivity island" in the tobacco sector, Selçuki emphasized that the industry stands at a critical juncture against competitors advancing through technology and innovation.
According to data, while global goods exports decreased by 3% between 2022 and 2024, tobacco exports saw a 28% increase.
Usage Rates and Tax Losses in Turkey H.
Ekrem Cunedioğlu, Director of the Development Program at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), stated that the tobacco usage rate among the population aged 15 and over in Turkey is around 30%.
With a global average of 22.7%, Turkey ranks 27th among 165 countries with the highest usage rates.
Cunedioğlu reported that although electronic cigarettes and similar products are legally prohibited, there are an estimated 1.9 million active users.
This situation led to an annual tax loss of approximately 76 billion TL in 2024, a figure projected to reach 100 billion TL by 2025.
Pricing and Risks of Illicit Trade Cunedioğlu observed that cigarettes in Turkey have become cheaper relative to national income compared to previous years.
He noted that if the 2010 ratio to national income had been maintained, a pack of cigarettes would cost 161 TL today.
He further explained that young people are turning to next-generation products, but since they cannot access them legally, they are pushed toward the illicit market.
The conference highlighted that products of uncertain origin, particularly from Asian economies, pose significant health risks.
Experts emphasized the economic and regulatory challenges created by illicit trade, stating that rapid changes in the tobacco market must be harmonized with legal regulations.