Risk of 'Jobless Growth' in the US Economy: Impacts of AI and Demographic Transformation

The Gap Between Growth and Employment Widens While the United States economy showed resilience by growing 2.2 percent in 2025, the labor market failed to keep pace with this performance.
Last year, only 181,000 new payroll positions were added, and the number of unemployed individuals notably exceeded the number of job openings.
This situation has reignited discussions about "jobless growth," a phenomenon where the economy expands without creating new employment opportunities.
Artificial Intelligence and the Wealth Effect Economists suggest that the mismatch between growth and employment is primarily driven by investments in artificial intelligence.
Large corporate budgets allocated to technology are boosting productivity and supporting growth while simultaneously slowing down hiring processes.
According to data from economist Bernard Yaros, AI spending contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP last year.
Furthermore, the wealth effect created by technology-driven stock market gains in high-income households continues to fuel economic growth by keeping consumer spending robust.
Migration and Demographic Transformation Another pillar of the employment stagnation involves demographic changes and migration policies.
Research from the San Francisco Fed predicts that net migration will drop from an annual level of 1.1 million to approximately 160,000 during the 2025-2026 period.
The contraction in labor supply is further deepened by an aging population entering retirement and companies pursuing workforce optimization following the pandemic.
Fed Warning of a 'Jobless Boom' Federal Reserve Board member Michael Barr warned that the rapid adaptation of AI could create a "jobless boom" in the future.
While Barr argued that the technology would have positive long-term effects, he emphasized that certain professional groups could face significant disruptions in the short term.
Although the current unemployment rate remains historically low at 4.3 percent, job postings have fallen to their lowest level since 2020, maintaining uncertainty in the market.