Critical Threshold for XRP Price: Do MVRV Ratio and Wallet Data Signal a Recovery?

Although failed short-term breakout attempts have increased selling pressure, technical data suggests the current situation may be a preparation phase before a recovery.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio falling below 1.0 indicates that the asset is undervalued relative to its cost basis.
Historical data shows that such dips in the MVRV ratio often trigger turning points.
For instance, a similar technical pattern occurred in July 2024, after which the XRP price gained 51% in a short period.
Current capitulation signals support a possible bottom formation as short-term investors exit the market.
Investor Behavior and Wallet Data On-chain metrics highlight shifts in investor composition.
The number of mid-sized wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP has begun to move sideways following a sharp decline.
This stabilization comes after the largest decrease seen since December 2020, indicating growing resolve in the market.
The tendency of small and medium-sized investors to remain in the market is considered critical for maintaining confidence in price stability and potential upside.
Preserving this base sets the stage for continued hopes of a short-term rally.
According to analysis, XRP must break the $1.57 resistance to gain strong bullish momentum.
If this breakout occurs, the price is expected to climb toward $1.91, entering a significant recovery phase.
However, downside risks remain relevant.
A drop below the $1.36 level could reinforce the bearish scenario, potentially leading the price down to $1.11 and weakening recovery expectations.