Interest Rate Decision Expectations The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey surprised markets by keeping the policy rate at 37% during its last meeting.
While the decision is expected to remain unchanged tomorrow, some analysts also consider a possible decline.
Impact on Gold Prices If the USD/TL exchange rate stays flat, gold prices per gram will largely follow global ounce movements.
A rate hike could weaken the dollar against the lira, leading to a drop in gold prices, whereas a rate cut would strengthen the lira and support gold prices.
A rate increase may trigger a flight from risk assets, but in the long term inflation control and foreign capital inflows could support the market.
A rate cut would lower borrowing costs and spark a rally in equities.
Banking Giants' Forecasts Morgan Stanley: Expects the September meeting to keep the rate at 37%.
S&P Global Market Intelligence: Indicates no rate cut is expected in September.
BBVA Research: Postpones the first rate cut expectation to October.
ING: Projects the policy rate could be lowered to 35% by the end of 2026.
The decision tomorrow will create uncertainty in the markets, and investors will closely monitor the outcome.
Breath Holds in Forex, Stock Market, and Gold: Tomorrow's 14:00 Central Bank Decision
The Central Bank of Turkey’s upcoming interest‑rate decision could trigger significant movements in foreign exchange, equities, and gold markets, with analysts weighing a 37% hold or a potential cut.
Sources
- Sözcü Gazetesi · baglanti