US and Israel Operations On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched operations against Iran, heightening concerns over oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Impact on Prices The heightened tensions pushed up crude and refined product prices worldwide.
Refinery Margin Increase By March 2026, refinery margins had risen to $47.5 per barrel, reaching $78.5 by September 2026.
In Europe, diesel margins climbed to $78.91, while in the United States they peaked at $108.02.
Ukraine Attacks and Supply Constraints Attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine curtailed Russia’s fuel exports, tightening global supply and further inflating margins.
Impact on Turkey Turkey largely meets its gasoline demand through domestic refineries, but about 53% of its diesel comes from domestic production and 47% from imports.
The Eşel Mobil system, introduced on March 5, 2026, aims to cap pump price increases by balancing international price swings through taxes.
Future Expectations The International Energy Agency reports that seasonal demand growth and supply gaps are pushing up price differentials for diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.
Daily crude processing volumes rose by 1.8 million barrels, yet inventories remained low.
New Fuel Price Pressure: Refinery Margins Tripled
The US/Israel-Iran conflict and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz, raising gasoline and diesel prices and tripling refinery margins.
Sources
- Haber 7 · baglanti