New Party OVP Assessment Report: Program's Credibility Questioned

Overview The Economic Coordination Council released a report evaluating the New Party’s 2027‑2029 Medium‑Term Program (OVP).
The assessment concludes that the program has lost credibility and has become a "rolling horizon document" .
Key Findings Core objectives are not clearly articulated, reducing the likelihood of achieving long‑term goals.
Significant gaps exist in inflation, employment, budget, and tax burden projections.
Policy coordination and fiscal discipline require urgent improvement.
Inflation Forecasts The council updated its 2026 inflation estimate upward by 12.4 percentage points.
While the Central Bank projects 15% inflation by the end of 2027, the OVP forecasts 21%, a 6‑point discrepancy that the report attributes to a lack of communication between institutions.
Employment and Budget For 2025‑2026, the OVP projects a net employment gain of 13,000 jobs, but notes that the decline in unemployment is partly due to people giving up job searches.
In 2027, capital expenditures are projected at 1.852 trillion lira and interest expenses at 3.975 trillion lira.
The report warns that the state will pay more than twice the interest on every lira invested, indicating weak fiscal discipline.
Capital and Interest Expenditures The council’s analysis highlights that the government will incur interest costs exceeding twice the amount invested, underscoring fiscal weakness.
Tax Burden Sixty percent of tax revenue comes from indirect taxes.
The report finds no concrete reform to rebalance this distribution and notes the absence of numeric targets for income distribution.
Agriculture and Social Security Agriculture is treated as an inflation item rather than a security issue, with no target set for agricultural added value over the three‑year period and the support budget effectively frozen.
The OVP projects that the social security deficit will turn into a surplus by 2029, a plan that the report views as a reduction of workers’ and retirees’ rights.
Recommendations The council recommends that deviations from the OVP trigger a justified deviation report to parliament.
Income distribution should be linked to measurable targets, and the government must take decisive steps to improve policy coordination and fiscal discipline.
Overall, the report concludes that the New Party’s Medium‑Term Program contains serious shortcomings in its alignment with current economic conditions and objectives.