September Outlook for the VN-Index: FTSE Upgrade and Capital Flows

VN-Index August Performance and Sector Distribution The VN-Index rose 96 points in August, closing at 1,832.12 and recording a total gain of 5.55%.
Even after excluding Vingroup shares, the index still gained 3.6%.
In terms of market breadth, 263 stocks rose while 129 fell.
Sector‑by‑sector, nine of ten sectors saw gains.
Information technology and non‑essential consumer goods: ~9% Real estate: 6.9% Energy: 6.8% Public utilities: 6.1% Finance: 6% Foreign Investor Activity and Liquidity Foreign investors' net sales in August totaled 1.4 trillion VND, a sharp 88.6% decline from July's 11.9 trillion VND.
Total sales fell 22% to 41.7 trillion VND, while total purchases remained roughly 40.4 trillion VND.
In the first eight months of 2026, foreign investors' total net sales reached 93.6 trillion VND.
Average daily trading volume in August was about 18.7 trillion VND, below the eight‑month average of 26.9 trillion VND and the 2025 forecast of 28.9 trillion VND.
FTSE Rating Upgrade and Capital Flow Scenarios Vietnam's weight in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index rose from 0.34‑0.35% in March to 0.49‑0.50% in August.
Under SSI Research’s baseline scenario, passive inflows are expected to occur in four stages: September 2026: 10% March 2027: 20% June 2027: 35% September 2027: 35% Under this scenario, total passive inflows are projected at about $2.282 billion, with an initial $228 million in September 2026.
In a more optimistic scenario, if Vietnam's weight rises to 0.95%, total passive inflows could reach $4.455 billion.
Analysts emphasize that active capital inflows depend on market growth quality, reform reliability, valuations, liquidity, and overall investability.
While it remains uncertain whether the market will enter a new bull cycle in September, rising capital flows are expected to support the current consolidation.