Adnan Bali Warns Industrialists: "Expecting Immediate Economic Relief is Unrealistic"

Economic Outlook and Recovery Capacity Adnan Bali, Chairman of the Board of Türkiye İş Bankası, met with industrialists at the Aegean Region Chamber of Industry (EBSO) Assembly Meeting to evaluate the current economic landscape.
Addressing questions regarding the recovery process from the ongoing stagnation, Bali stated that assuming markets will find relief in the near future is not realistic.
While noting that the decisions made by the economic management are correct and goal-oriented, Bali emphasized that the Turkish economy possesses a high capacity for recovery.
He remarked that the current situation arose from real rather than fictitious reasons and that the economy must fully activate its internal dynamics.
Inflation, Interest Rates, and Growth Forecasts Highlighting price stability as the primary challenge, Bali shared his macroeconomic forecasts for the upcoming period.
He projected a growth rate of 3.5% for 2025, an inflation expectation of 23-25% by the end of 2026, and year-end interest rates at or below 30%.
Bali pointed out a contraction in both domestic and international markets, noting that the economy is navigating a difficult period where stagnation and inflation are intertwined.
Contraction in the Banking Sector and Credit Volume Discussing the contraction in the banking sector, Bali stated that the share of loans within the national income has significantly decreased.
"Looking at the long term, the share of loans in the national income has fallen from 60% to the 36-37% range.
This level is comparable to the 2008 global crisis.
The share of commercial loans dropped from 54% to 28%, while foreign currency-based investment loans fell from 28% to 14%," he explained.
Strategic Roadmap for Industrialists Offering advice to industrialists during these challenging economic conditions, Bali suggested that instead of completely postponing investment decisions, they should focus on correct timing for projects that create value.
He emphasized the importance of having facilities ready for when the economy revitalizes.
Bali stressed avoiding ventures with certain expenses but uncertain returns.
He recommended calibrating business processes daily according to changing conditions and disposing of idle assets that do not contribute to the enterprise's current income.
Izmir’s Potential and Global Transformation Drawing attention to Izmir's economic significance, Bali reminded the audience that the city ranks third after Istanbul and Ankara with an economic volume exceeding 2.5 trillion TL.
Evaluating global developments, Bali stated that adapting to the new order created by digitalization, artificial intelligence, and climate change is critical.
He emphasized that in an environment where institutions and rules are transforming, industrialists must manage this process by staying focused on their core business.