Projected Demand The Economic and Development Research Institute (EKA) estimates that China’s oil demand will reach 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, an 8.9% decline from the previous year.
This would mark the third consecutive year of falling consumption.
Reasons for Decline High oil prices and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles are cited as the main drivers.
Gasoline demand is expected to fall 8.7%, diesel demand 11.4%, while jet fuel demand is projected to rise 1.3% to 41.55 million tonnes.
Import and Price Effects China remains the world’s largest oil importer.
Customs data show that crude oil imports fell 23.4% year‑on‑year in August.
Tensions in the Middle East and Brent prices approaching $100 have limited the impact of supply disruptions on prices.
In the second quarter, China’s oil consumption dropped about 9%.
Conclusion The decline in oil demand reflects China’s progress toward its sustainability targets, representing a significant step for both environmental and economic reasons.
China's Oil Demand Will Decline in 2026
China's oil demand is projected to fall to 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, an 8.9% drop from the previous year.
Sources
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