Yapı Kredi Investment Strategy Note: Global Risks and Outlook for the Turkish Economy

Strategic Outlook and Risks in Global Markets In its latest strategy note, Yapı Kredi Investment (YKY) emphasized that global markets are entering a period of increasing risks.
As the world moves toward 2030, the debate over whether capital will prioritize growth or security continues, with the competition between artificial intelligence investments and gold becoming a primary agenda item for the markets.
Uncertainties in the US and European Economies The US Supreme Court's decision to overturn Trump's mass tariffs was initially welcomed by markets on expectations of easing inflationary pressures.
However, Trump's subsequent announcement of a 10% global tariff reignited uncertainty.
In the Eurozone, although manufacturing PMI reached a three-month high, overall economic dynamism appears to have weakened compared to the previous quarter.
Turkish Economy and Financial Data Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek stated that no new tax increases are on the agenda, noting that investor interest in Turkey is strengthening.
Şimşek provided messages of economic stability across a wide range of areas, from housing supply to interest payments.
Meanwhile, according to Central Bank data, the Real Sector Confidence Index rose, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing firms regarding the economic outlook.
Banking and Real Sector Developments In the financial sector, Halkbank's total assets reached 4.3 trillion TL by the end of 2025, a 43% increase compared to the previous year.
In the real sector, Enerjisa Enerji successfully completed a 10-billion TL bond issuance with a 7-year maturity through Ak Investment.
Geopolitical Agenda and Press Freedom Former President Abdullah Gül stated that Europe's new security architecture cannot be built without key actors like Turkey and the United Kingdom.
In the international press, The Economist analyzed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing a strategic squeeze in the context of the Ukraine War.
On the domestic front, the arrest of journalist Alican Uludağ drew reactions in Berlin.
Uludağ stated that he would maintain his professional stance in defense of the public's right to information.